MD 0964 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Areas affected...parts of north Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101908Z - 102215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop after 20Z near or just
west/southwest of the Metroplex. Damaging hail and winds will be
possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an outflow boundary stalled near
the Metroplex and extending east/southeast into northwest LA.
Meanwhile, a low-pressure trough continues westward into much of
northwest TX.
Visible imagery show Cu fields beginning to develop near these
boundaries, and into central TX near the low-level heat axis.
Plentiful moisture exists south of the outflow boundary, with 70s F
dewpoints contributing to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level
convergence is currently maximized in a several county area
surrounding the Metroplex, where the outflow boundary intersects the
veered winds related to the low-level heat axis and surface trough.
Several more hours of heating will lead to storms developing in
these areas, with movement in an east/southeast direction through
evening. Isolated significant hail will be possible with cellular
storm mode, with increasing threat of damaging winds/downbursts as
storms congeal over time. As such, a watch will be needed soon.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31759520 31359539 31009574 30959611 31059665 31379757
31679805 32239830 32769833 33069823 33139801 32959759
32879707 32779661 32739612 32559546 32379528 32129521
31759520
