MD 0966 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO…FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA…AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Areas affected...northeast Colorado...far southwest Nebraska...and
northwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 102145Z - 102245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and shift
east/southeast across the northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska
Plains into northwest Kansas this evening. Sporadic strong gusts and
hail are possible.
DISCUSSION...Convection has developed near higher terrain in the
I-25 corridor in central/north-central CO this afternoon. Surface
dewpoints are generally in the 50s, limiting stronger
destabilization, but steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to
MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. This should be sufficient to sustain
at least briefly strong updrafts as storms shift east/southeast.
Vertical shear will be a limiting factor in a more widespread/better
organized severe threat, with 0-6 km bulk shear only around 15-20
kt. Nevertheless, strong heating has allowed low-level lapse rates
to become very steep. Given adequate instability/shear for at least
briefly intense cells, the deeply-mixed boundary-layer may support
strong downdrafts. Hail may also briefly be possible with the more
intense cores.
As convection percolates east through the evening toward southwest
NE/northwest KS, some consolidation/organization along outflows is
possible. This could result in some increase in severe gust
potential after 00z. However, confidence in this evolution is
somewhat low. While a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear
necessary in the short term, convective trends will be monitored
into this evening.
..Leitman/Hart.. 06/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41160212 40450105 39660063 39350071 38800123 38480217
38470377 38550425 39250455 40310479 40770459 41130397
41240292 41160212
