MD 0969 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317… FOR FAR S-CNTRL KS…WRN/CNTRL OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S-CNTRL KS...WRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317... VALID 292347Z - 300115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 317. DISCUSSION...THREE SEPARATE SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WATCH AREA...EACH WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. ONE CLUSTER...WHICH IS JUST A SINGLE STORM...CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD FROM CLARK COUNTY KS INTO HARPER COUNTY OK. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND KVNX RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS TSTM MAY ORGANIZE/TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS TO ITS EAST. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF TSTMS...LOCATED FROM GRANT COUNTY SWD INTO KINGFISHER COUNTY...HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH A MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AS THEY PROPAGATE SWD/SEWD INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ORGANIZATION INTO A CONVECTIVE BAND/MCS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE TSTMS BUT RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THEY SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THIRD CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN SW OK/FAR NW TX HAS ALSO SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED. LEFT SPLIT MOVING NEWD ACROSS SE CADDO COUNTY IS PROGRESSING INTO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /SBCAPE AOA 3500 J/KG PER MESOANALYSIS/ AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM. ..MOSIER.. 05/29/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 34129898 37530045 37549735 34109602 34129898
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0969.html
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