MD 0973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Areas affected...eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico and
the Oklahoma Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 111844Z - 111945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for large hail and a tornado with thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Watch likely needed by around 20z.
DISCUSSION...Upslope flow across the high terrain in eastern New
Mexico and Colorado will be the focus of thunderstorm development
through the afternoon. Westerly flow will bring storms off the high
terrain into the plains through the late afternoon and evening.
Daytime heating should result in modest MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
amid favorable deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. Hodograph
structures are largely linear and elongated, with strong deep layer
flow and steep lapse rates. This environment will support high-based
supercell with the potential for large hail (with instances near 2
inches) and damaging winds. Weak low-level shear will limit tornado
potential but any discrete supercells that become established could
pose risk of a tornado as they track eastward into the better air
mass across far eastern Colorado/Oklahoma Panhandle. A watch will
likely be needed by around 20z.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/11/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37850539 38530547 39990531 40180485 40010413 39440370
38970341 37820252 37410220 37060199 36650168 36510201
36480216 36470248 36440279 36520375 36630410 36660438
36880471 37140508 37350522 37850539
