MD 0975 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR BIG COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Areas affected...Big Country into north Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 112102Z - 112300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with gusty winds and large hail possible
through the afternoon. This area is being monitored for watch
potential in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 90s
across portions of central Texas with dew points in the upper 60s to
70s. This has yielded MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. In the
last hour, thunderstorms have begun to develop, with cumulus
increasing near Abilene. In addition, surface winds indicate a
convergence zone across Central Texas. Timing of development further
east into the Metroplex is less certain. Cu in this region shows
little vertical extent as of 20:45z. However, given strong buoyancy
initiation could occur before CAM guidance window of 22-00z. Storm
mode will favor clustered supercells with potential for large hail
and damaging winds (occasional splits given straight, elongated
hodographs). Given uncertainty on timing of initiation, trends
within this area are being monitored for a watch.
..Thornton/Thornton.. 06/11/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
LAT...LON 31800025 32180013 32479981 32889904 33219822 33309722
33209620 32759568 32469559 32059564 31819578 31569620
31659799 31479859 31369906 31309947 31319973 31420008
31800025
