MD 0976 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 0976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Areas affected...Portions of the Trans Pecos
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112137Z - 112300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts possible
through the evening across the Trans Pecos.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of updrafts have developed south of Fort
Stockton along a sharp dryline. Updrafts have yet to consolidate,
but are expected to eventually consolidate and organize into a
strong supercell given a downstream environment of 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE
and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support robust
updrafts capable of some very large (2+") hail. Long/straight
hodographs could favor some splitting supercells, especially early
in the life cycle. Most guidance suggests storm coverage should
remain isolated in this region. However, current radar/satellite
trends suggest storm coverage may be higher than initially thought.
At this time, the expectation for an isolated severe threat
precludes the need for a watch, but if more scattered storm
development appears imminent, a watch may need to be considered.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/11/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29550272 30250290 30780287 31440263 31540140 31490062
30920029 30030064 29450101 29260120 29390146 29540177
29570227 29550272
