MD 0980 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WCNTRL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301805Z - 301930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WCNTRL KS. AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...CELLS ARE STARTING TO INITIATE IN WCNTRL KS LOCATED
ALONG A MOISTURE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE CELL IN NESS COUNTY IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. IN SPITE OF BEING
ELEVATED...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL. THE THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
RUSSELL KS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS
WEAKENING MAINLY FROM GARDEN CITY KS NWD TO AROUND OAKLEY KS. THE
WEAKENING CAP IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN NEB AND ERN CO MOVES INTO
WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL INITIATE IN WRN KS BETWEEN 20Z TO 21Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39219983 39180141 38720180 37590142 37309877 37619820
38159780 38819778 39059853 39219983
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0980.html
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