MD 0996 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Areas affected...portions of south-central Virginia into eastern
North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121717Z - 121845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of far
southern VA into eastern NC. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat. A WW issuance is possible pending trends in greater
storm coverage.
DISCUSSION...Surface heating has allowed for modest boundary-layer
deepening/mixing ahead of an approaching cold front, with
thunderstorms already initiating along the front in southwest VA and
along a confluence zone in far eastern NC. Surface
temperatures/dewpoints warming into the 80s/70s F are contributing
to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates.
Furthermore, the approach of the mid-level trough will support
strengthening mid-level flow and corresponding 30+ kts of effective
bulk shear/elongating hodographs in addition to deep-layer ascent.
A net increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected
through the afternoon. Multicellular structures and short line
segments should pose a damaging gust threat given 7-8 C/km low-level
lapse rates. Trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34998080 36247934 37207877 37337853 37257813 37077784
36877770 36647750 36437675 36207621 35857608 35217641
34607714 34287791 34157838 34417907 34747972 34998080
