SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough/low centered along the West Coast should amplify further on Monday as it advances slowly eastward over the western CONUS. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with this feature may support the development of weak instability along/near coast of OR and northern/central CA. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection across these areas, with some potential for this activity to spread inland across parts of northern/central CA with strong forcing associated with a mid-level jet. Low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward across much of the southern/central Plains on Monday, as lee cyclogenesis occurs over the northern/central High Plains. Weak, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South in a modest low-level warm advection regime. The potential for isolated thunderstorms should shift northward across the southern/central Plains Monday afternoon through Monday night as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens. This activity should also remain elevated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually strengthen Monday night across the southern/central Plains as the upper trough approaches from the west. But, instability is forecast to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), so any threat for hail with elevated convection appears limited. ..Gleason.. 11/05/2022
