SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE LOWER/MID TN VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms producing a couple brief tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail remain possible across parts of the Mid-South and the Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys, mainly through this evening. ...Mid-South/Lower MS and TN Valley Region... Upper troughing is settling southeast across the MS Valley with several weak disturbances translating into the central Gulf States. Modest mid-level height falls will spread ahead of the trough and encourage scattered convection the remainder of tonight in advance of the surging cold front. Early-day MCS that evolved over central MS/AL has progressed into southern GA where intensities have gradually waned due to weaker buoyancy. Of more interest is the reservoir of modest instability across the Mid-South. 00z sounding from JAN exhibits roughly 2500 J/kg SBCAPE with ample surface-6km bulk shear for the maintenance of organized, rotating updrafts. Scattered convection, and isolated supercells, have gradually increased along a corridor from south-central AR-northern MS-western TN. This activity is expected to propagate southeast ahead of the aforementioned deepening trough. Primary risk with this activity is hail/wind, though a tornado or two can not be ruled out due to the moist, strongly deep-sheared environment. ..Darrow.. 10/13/2022
