SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL REGION AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA/NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions and into South Texas Monday, with local severe risk possible -- particularly across South Texas and southern Atlantic Coast area. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to move slowly southeastward with time, while short-wave energy on the back side of the low digs rapidly south-southeastward across the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. By the second half of the period, broad/high-amplitude cyclonic flow will encompass the eastern half of the U.S., while stout ridging prevails over the west. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes region southward across the Carolinas, and then southwestward across the Gulf Coast States to South Texas at the start of the period. This front will move steadily eastward/southeastward toward -- and eventually off -- the Atlantic Coast, while moving more slowly southward into/across the Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Northeastern Florida northward across the coastal Carolinas... As the cold front progresses eastward across the East Coast States, some heating of an amply moist low-level airmass should result in modest pre-frontal destabilization. This will help support an uptick in convective coverage/intensity during the afternoon. Aided by 40 to 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow on the southeastern side of the digging upper system, a couple of the stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds. However, will maintain only MRGL risk at this time, due to uncertainty regarding degree of storm coverage. ...South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, as the cold front moves slowly southward. While lapse rates aloft are forecast to be weak, a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will support some diurnal destabilization. Given mid-level westerly flow in the 30 to 40 kt range that is expected across South Texas, a few stronger storms are likely to evolve. A couple of strong/damaging gusts are thus possible locally, warranting continuation of the MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 10/16/2022
