SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest potential for scattered severe thunderstorms capable of a couple tornadoes, significant large hail, and severe wind gusts is across parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Low to mid 60s surface dew points are pervasive across eastern NM and west TX. This will support a broader plume of moderate buoyancy this afternoon relative to the past couple days with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of central to eastern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos, initiating in the early afternoon. Several discrete supercells should evolve across east-central/southeast NM and the Permian Basin. Modest low-level curvature beneath a moderately elongated and straight mid to upper hodograph should favor large hail production, some of which should reach golf ball size with potential for a few 2-2.5 inch sizes as well. A couple tornadoes will also be possible, most probable in the east-central NM vicinity where low-level hodographs should be slightly more enlarged with lower LCL heights. Storms should consolidate into east-northeast moving clusters by late afternoon to early evening with a strong to isolated severe wind threat spreading across parts of west TX before weakening after sunset. ...Central High Plains to the Dakotas... A lee cyclone becoming established over northeast CO will track north-northeast into southwest SD this evening as mid-level height falls increase downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough moving from UT into WY. A strengthening baroclinic zone, aided by ongoing differential boundary-layer heating within the nearly cloud-free warm sector and stratus lingering behind the front, will support intensifying thunderstorms that develop northeast off the Front Range. Consensus of 12Z HREF guidance supports a scenario of an organized cluster peaking across the western NE Panhandle vicinity in the late afternoon to early evening with a severe wind and isolated hail threat along the baroclinic zone. The severe wind/hail potential should decrease after sunset, but may continue tonight on an isolated basis across parts of the Dakotas. ..Grams/Bentley.. 10/02/2023
