SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday from the Texas Panhandle eastward into southwest Oklahoma and southwest Texas/Texas Hill Country. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough is expected to progress southeastward from the Four Corners across the southern High Plains and into the southern Plains on Thursday, maturing and acquiring a more neutral tilt as it does. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over southeast CO/northeast NM, with the resulting low then moving southeast across the TX Panhandle. Moisture return ahead of this system will be limited by scouring of the low-level moisture by a previous front and largely offshore trajectories across much of the Gulf Coast. Even so, some modest moisture return should still occur from south TX up through the Permian Basin, bringing low to mid 50s dewpoints into the TX South Plains/TX Panhandle. Given the cold temperatures aloft, this should be enough low-level moisture to foster modest buoyancy. As a result, isolated thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline during the afternoon. Greater thunderstorm coverage is possible during the evening and overnight as moisture continues to increase and the cold front surges eastward. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will move across the region at this time as well. Isolated severe thunderstorms as possible during the afternoon, with hail and wind gusts as the primary risk. Some potential exists for a convective line to develop as the front progresses through, with an attendant threat for wind gusts and hail extending into the evening and overnight across southwest OK and southwest TX/TX Hill Country. Uncertainty regarding moisture return as well as the evolution/strength of any convective line that develops merits keeping severe probabilities at 5% for this outlook. ..Mosier.. 10/25/2022
