SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes, will continue to be possible this evening across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the High Plains, with southwesterly mid-level flow located over the southern and central Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is located just ahead of a shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is centered in eastern Nebraska with a cold front moving through the central Plains. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints are near 60 F near the line of ongoing storms. This line will continue to move northeastward across the central Plains, posing a severe threat with the stronger cores embedded in the line. MCS development appears to be underway. The RAP is currently analyzing moderate instability near the line of convection, where MLCAPE is estimated to be between 1500 and 2500 J/kg. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wichita appears to be sampling the best environment, with 0-6 km shear approaching 60 knots. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will continue to be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will continue to be possible with the more intense supercells, mainly along the southern end of the line across central Kansas. RAP forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 250 m2/s2 in central Kansas suggesting a few tornadoes will be possible this evening. As the linear MCS continues to organize, a wind-damage threat will also exist with bowing segments embedded in the line, see MCD 2224. ...West Texas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across west Texas, along and near an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. These storms are located within a plume of mid-level moisture streaming northeastward from northern Mexico into west-central Texas, evident on water-vapor imagery. The potential for storm development will continue across the southern High Plains this evening, although a lack of large-scale ascent will likely keep the storms more isolated. In addition to the instability, WSR-88D VWPs in west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. In addition, forecast soundings in west-central Texas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will continue to support supercells with isolated large hail. The threat will likely continue for a few more hours before the cap strengthens significantly. ..Broyles.. 10/04/2023
