SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will develop over the northern Plains with an intense cyclonic jet pushing southeastward out of the northern High Plains. Farther south, a leading wave associated with scattered storms will move from OK/TX into the lower MS valley, with a weakening trend expected. Meanwhile, various small-scale disturbances are likely within a belt of moderate southwest flow aloft across the OH Valley. The primary surface low will move east across Ontario, with a cold front extending south from the Upper Great Lakes through the MS Valley. Low-level moisture will be maximized from eastern TX through the lower MS Valley with dewpoints near 70 F, with low 60 F dewpoints as far north as Lower MI contributing to weak instability. ...Central and eastern TX to Lower MI... Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along the cold front from eastern TX into AR, with the greatest thunderstorm coverage propagating southward across TX where moisture will be plentiful. Although moist, lapse rates aloft will be poor, with weak wind speeds through the lowest 3 km. As such, little severe risk is expected with these storms, but a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out with clusters during the afternoon. Farther north within the pre-frontal warm conveyor, poor lapse rates, weak instability and weak effective shear profiles will lead to scattered non-severe thunderstorms from MO to Lower MI and OH. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2023
