SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An outflow-reinforced surface cold front is forecast to continue shift southward across Texas, and southeastward across the western Gulf and central Gulf Coast region. This frontal progression will occur as a mid-level short-wave trough advances southeastward across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley area toward the northern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north, a second cold front is progged to move eastward out of the northern Plains and across the Great Lakes, while sagging southeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and central Plains through the period. This front will progress in conjunction with an evolving/strengthening upper trough moving slowly eastward across the Canadian Prairie, and the adjacent north-central CONUS. As the southern front advances, warm/moist air will be gradually suppressed southward, along with the remaining zone of appreciable CAPE. Thunderstorms -- ongoing at the start of the period across portions of Texas and portions of Louisiana -- may remain locally vigorous, and a marginal severe report cannot be ruled out through the first half of the period as this convection advances steadily southward and eventually vacates Texas. However, an increasingly anafrontal scenario is expected to evolve with time, with convection largely occurring to the cool side of the front. As such, severe risk should remain minimal -- too low to introduce MRGL risk. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms are expected along the northern front -- from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks -- through the day, but weak instability suggests sub-severe convection. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also expected across portions of Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast, but weak flow and modest CAPE should prove insufficient to support stronger storms. ..Goss/Lyons.. 10/05/2023
