SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level longwave trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Friday, as a strong shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. A cold front trailing from a surface cyclone over Quebec will move through parts of the Ohio Valley/Northeast and eventually parts of the central/southern Appalachians and Southeast. A persistent midlevel trough and attendant surface low northeast of the Bahamas may begin to merge with Tropical Cyclone Philippe by Friday night, per the latest NHC forecast. Thunderstorm potential appears relatively low across most of the CONUS on Friday. Weak diurnal convection will be possible along/ahead of the front across a broad region from the Southeast into the OH Valley and Northeast. However, this convection will likely tend to be low-topped, with relatively warm EL temperatures limiting lightning potential. Confidence in more than very isolated storm development in any particular area is too low to include a general thunderstorm area across this region. Elsewhere, a lingering storm or two will be possible across deep south TX Friday morning. Convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across Lake Michigan and the lakeshore region of western lower MI, as cold midlevel temperatures (near -10 C at 700 mb) spread over the relatively warm lake waters. Very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the shortwave trough moving from the upper Midwest toward the OH Valley late in the period, but a lack of moisture should limit storm coverage. Finally, modest moistening/destabilization may support isolated storm development across southeast AZ during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/05/2023
