SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of southwest Texas on Monday afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will slowly move southeastward across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley/southern Great Plains and the southern portion of the front will continue to push southward into southwest TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Great Lakes southwest into the southern Great Plains. ...Southwest TX... A mid-level disturbance located to the west of the Pacific coast of southern CA, will move east across much of the Desert Southwest prior to Monday morning. This feature is forecast to move east-southeast across west TX and into central TX during the daylight hours Monday. The aforementioned cold front aligned in a general west-east orientation will push into the Permian Basin and Big Country by mid afternoon. Model guidance indicates near 60 deg F dewpoints in the Concho Valley. Diurnal heating will likely result in moderate destabilization by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Model guidance exhibits variability in spatial placement of a cluster of potential thunderstorm activity, but it seems at least isolated thunderstorms will develop from the Permian Basin into west-central TX during the afternoon. Lapse rates and appreciably strong deep-layer shear may support a few intermittently organized storms capable of large hail and localized severe gusts. ..Smith.. 09/10/2023
