SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the southern High Plains and southern New England on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will pivot through the upper Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Wednesday. A surface low will move north and east in southern Quebec with a trailing cold front moving eastward. Low-amplitude troughs are expected to move through the Southwest. Southeasterly surface flow is expected to push moisture back into the southern High Plains where a remnant cold front will be positioned. ...Southern High Plains... Southeasterly low-level flow is expected to maintain upper 50s to perhaps low 60s F dewpoints into the region. The subtle shortwave troughs along with the terrain and remnant front/surface trough should provide some focus for convection during the afternoon where around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is anticipated. A belt of stronger mid-level flow within the subtropical jet will promote 40-45 kts of effective shear. Initial storms will be discrete and capable of large hail and strong/severe wind gusts. Some clustering also appears possible which would locally increase the severe wind gust threat. Convection is possible in the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains, but coverage and severity (due to weaker mid-level winds) is uncertain. ...Southern New England... Widely scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop along the front as it moves east. The early timing of the front may limit potential for destabilization, but some areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE could develop where heating is greater. Deep-layer flow with the approaching trough will favor some organized storm structures despite weaker thermodynamics. Low-level shear will remain weak, though some hodograph curvature is noted in forecast soundings. Conditionally, the strongest storms may show marginal supercell characteristics with embedded circulations that could produce damaging winds (45-60 mph) and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2023
