SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms is forecast to be low on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Thursday. Another upper-level trough will dig southward out of the Canadian Prairie and into the northern Plains. Some modest mid-level flow will persist across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains associated with the subtropical jet. A remnant cold front will remain within coastal Texas into the Trans-Pecos and Southwest. Elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible from the Texas South Plains into North Texas with warm advection over the remnant boundary. This activity casts doubt on the degree of destabilization that is possible by afternoon. With modest mid-level flow aloft, it is possible that a stronger storm or two could develop during the afternoon, but uncertainty is high. There is a higher probability that storms will again increase in coverage when the low-level jet increases during the evening. By that time, storms would likely not be surface based. The overall potential for severe weather remains too low for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2023
