SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening over southeast Georgia and the Carolina coastal plain. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough initially over IL southward to MS/AL will pivot eastward and be located from PA south-southwest into the western Carolinas by daybreak Monday. A surface front will push east across the Mid South during the day before accelerating east over the Carolinas during the evening. A weak surface low is forecast to develop over the Carolina Piedmont and east of the VA/NC border. ...Southeast... A reservoir of rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern half of GA and southern SC Sunday morning. Southerly low-level flow will act to increase moisture inland during the diurnal heating cycle across the southeast half of SC and eventually into southern NC (upper 60s inland to the lower 70s near the coast). Forecast soundings show appreciably strong mid to high-level southwesterly flow across this region ahead of the mid-level trough. Mid-level lapse rates will be meager but steepening 0-3 km lapse rates via heating will aid in moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Models show isolated to scattered storms during the morning with storm coverage perhaps increasing during the afternoon mainly over southeast GA into the coastal plain of SC. A few clusters of organized storms will potentially be capable of strong to locally severe and damaging gusts. It is uncertain whether storms will become strong across the western Carolinas precluding low-severe probabilities this outlook update. A damaging-wind risk may continue during the evening across eastern NC before this activity moves into the Atlantic. ..Smith.. 09/16/2023
