SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A conditional threat for a few supercells exists this evening across northwest Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan. Should storms become sustained, large hail and locally damaging winds will be the primary hazards. ...Midwest... The main change for this update is to remove the Marginal risk across northeast IL into southern MI. Storms across these regions continue to weaken and are not expected to intensify amid increasing inhibition ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm redevelopment/re-intensification is probable across northeast OH during the early-morning hours along the warm front, but weak effective shear will likely limit storm organization. Across northwest WI, several attempts at convective development have been observed over the past hour, and latest CAMs continue to hint that more robust/sustained convective initiation is probable along the cold front this evening. With a favorable environment lingering along or just behind the front (sampled by the 00 UTC MPX and GRB soundings), the potential for severe hail/wind continues, but will be conditional on sustained convection. ...North Kansas... An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms with peripheral new development across north-central KS may continue to pose a severe wind risk for the next 1-2 hours given modest effective shear and low-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. However, the onset of diurnal cooling is expected to diminish MUCAPE and weaken near-surface lapse rates through the evening hours, which should limit the duration of this concern. ..Moore/Gleason.. 09/21/2022
