SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of severe hail and damaging winds are forecast into this evening across the Upper Ohio River Valley and the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts are also possible across portions of the northeast Great Basin this afternoon. ...Upper Ohio River Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Latest surface observations show the cold front draped from southern Ontario into central IL and continuing to migrate to the southeast. 00 UTC soundings ahead of the front from PIT, ILN, and BUF sampled 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE with supercellular wind profiles featuring 40-50 knots of effective shear. This environment remains conditionally favorable for organized convection, and recent CAM guidance hints that additional development along the front is possible into the overnight hours, especially across western PA into NY. However, latest radar and IR trends show ongoing convection both ahead and along the cold front struggling to maintain intensity. While confidence in the severe threat remains low, probabilities are maintained given the favorable downstream environment. See Mesoscale Discussion number 1816 for additional local details. ...Great Basin... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue across portions of northern UT into eastern ID. Steep mid-level lapse rates, broad ascent, and ample deep-layer shear will continue to support the potential for a strong to severe storm or two into the overnight hours, but diurnal stabilization will continue to diminish the overall wind threat. ..Moore/Jewell.. 09/22/2022
