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SPC Sep 22, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of severe hail and damaging winds
are forecast into this evening across the Upper Ohio River Valley
and the Lower Great Lakes.  Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts
are also possible across portions of the northeast Great Basin this
afternoon.

...Upper Ohio River Valley and Lower Great Lakes...
Latest surface observations show the cold front draped from southern
Ontario into central IL and continuing to migrate to the southeast.
00 UTC soundings ahead of the front from PIT, ILN, and BUF sampled
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE with supercellular wind profiles featuring
40-50 knots of effective shear. This environment remains
conditionally favorable for organized convection, and recent CAM
guidance hints that additional development along the front is
possible into the overnight hours, especially across western PA into
NY. However, latest radar and IR trends show ongoing convection both
ahead and along the cold front struggling to maintain intensity.
While confidence in the severe threat remains low, probabilities are
maintained given the favorable downstream environment. See Mesoscale
Discussion number 1816 for additional local details.

...Great Basin...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue across portions of
northern UT into eastern ID. Steep mid-level lapse rates, broad
ascent, and ample deep-layer shear will continue to support the
potential for a strong to severe storm or two into the overnight
hours, but diurnal stabilization will continue to diminish the
overall wind threat.

..Moore/Jewell.. 09/22/2022

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