SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the northern High Plains this evening. A few tornadoes are also possible over the coastal southern Mid-Atlantic/Tidewater region overnight into tomorrow morning. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has advanced into western WY early this evening. Large-scale ascent is spreading downstream and is currently reflected in a corridor of weak convection that extends from near RKS, arcing across CPR to near SHR. Boundary-layer flow remains decidedly easterly across much of the lower elevations of eastern WY with surface temperatures holding in the 60s to near 70F over the southeastern part of the state. Given the very cold temperatures aloft, a corridor of buoyancy persists from the NE Panhandle into this portion of WY. While earlier supercell activity has spread into the NE Panhandle and weakened, latest thinking is additional strong/severe thunderstorm development is possible over the next few hours as the aforementioned large-scale ascent spreads across eastern WY. Wind profiles continue to favor supercell development and large hail is expected with the most robust activity. Additionally, some tornado risk continues given the relatively low LCLs and favorable shear. TS Ophelia continues its northerly track toward the NC Coast. Wind profiles are strengthening across the southern Middle Atlantic/Tidewater region which will support some organizational threat with convection as it rotates inland, well northeast of expected landfall. Latest radar data suggests some weak rotation is evident in some of the stronger showers offshore. Tornado risk will gradually increase later tonight as shear continues to increase. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2023
