SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Pecos Valley to Big Bend. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move southeastward across eastern Iowa on Tuesday, as a front moves southward into central Missouri and central Illinois. Near the front, surface dewpoints will likely be near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of moderate instability may develop across the Mississippi Valley. This combined with large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level low, will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be about 35 knots, with 500 mb temperatures near -14 C. This should be favorable for a marginal hail threat with cells that develop to the southeast of the upper-level system, where instability and shear are forecast to be maximized. A few strong gusts will also be possible, especially during the late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be steepest. ...Far West Texas/Eastern New Mexico... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, upslope flow will reinforce a southeast-to-northwest corridor of maximized low-level moisture from southwest Texas to southeast New Mexico. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate instability may develop near the moist axis by afternoon. Despite the lack of large-scale ascent, topographic forcing will result in isolated to scattered convective initiation during the afternoon. The instability, combined with 25 to 30 knot of 0-6 km shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, should be favorable for an isolated severe threat. Hail and marginally severe gusts will be the primary hazards during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 09/25/2023
