SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are possible in vicinity of the Florida Keys and across the southern into central Florida Peninsula through tonight in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Florida Keys and southern/central Florida Peninsula... Hurricane Ian is expected to move north-northeastward off the northern coast of western Cuba later this morning and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest track/intensity forecast details. Multiple bands of convection that are approaching the Keys are already evident this morning on the east/northeast periphery of Ian. In its northeast quadrant, regional WSR-88D VAD Wind Profile data from Key West has sampled a steady increase in low-level shear/SRH through the early morning hours, with more modest but increasing shear/SRH also noted per Miami VWP data. Plentiful moisture (mid/upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and some cloud breaks along with the diurnal cycle should provide a boost to parcel accelerations and updraft intensity, particularly from late morning into afternoon, initially across the Keys vicinity and far southern Peninsula. As this occurs, a further strengthening of low-level shear and elongating low-level hodographs will increasingly support the potential for embedded supercells in association with multiple bands of semi-discrete convection. Related tornado potential is expected to diurnally increase and otherwise gradually expand northward today across the southern Peninsula, and into parts of the central Peninsula tonight. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 09/27/2022
