Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... The primary threat during the extended range will continue to be Tropical Cyclone Ian, which is expected to weaken as it generally moves northward into parts of the Southeast, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding its track at this forecast range (see NHC advisories and forecasts for more information on Ian). Depending on the eastern extent of Ian's track, the persistent baroclinic zone from the northern FL Peninsula to offshore of the Carolinas may begin to move northward, potentially bringing richer low-level moisture into coastal portions of GA/SC/NC. This may result in some tornado threat on D4/Friday into D5/Saturday, though the magnitude of the threat is expected to be lower compared to earlier in the week, due to weakening low-level flow/shear and generally weak buoyancy. Elsewhere across the country, generally dry and stable conditions should tend to limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat, as surface ridging in the wake of Ian is expected to limit any substantial return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico through at least early next week.
