SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes will remain possible this evening and overnight across portions of east-central Florida, in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Eastern and central Florida... Hurricane Ian now inland (95 miles SSW of Orlando, Florida) per the latest NHC advisory is forecast to make slow progress northeastward through this evening and overnight. As surface pressure rises rapidly behind Ian across southern and southwestern Florida tonight, winds will continue to veer, decreasing low-level shear and tornado potential. The strongest convection is forecast to remain mostly off the Atlantic coast where feeder bands remain better organized away from intruding dry mid-level air. Some of these bands may move closer to shore through 08z as low-level flow backs in response to approaching pressure falls with Ian's center. Hi-res guidance also shows some additional development will remain possible off the Atlantic coast where dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s F exist. A narrow corridor of favorable buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and enlarged low-level hodographs may support some tornado potential through the overnight hours across portions of coastal east-central Florida and Cape Canaveral as the aforementioned bands of convection approach. Inland sustainment of any supercells is much more uncertain given weak buoyancy and rain-cooled airmass behind a remnant frontal boundary draped across northern Florida. Still, a couple tornadoes will remain possible with convection moving onshore tonight before low-level flow weakens and veers. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 09/29/2022
