SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Sep 02 2022 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SONORAN AND MOJAVE DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. ...Sonoran and Mojave Deserts through late evening... A broken linear cluster of storms this evening will continue west-southwest into eastern portions of the Mojave desert and into the Sonoran desert. Very steep lapse rates were sampled on the Las Vegas and Tucson raobs and around 30-kt east-northeasterly flow is on the Phoenix VAD. Severe gusts with the stronger cores will remain possible into the late evening as storms move into richer low-level moisture in the lower CO River Valley. ...KS northeastward into the WI vicinity... Early evening water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northern Ontario with an associated disturbance moving through the base of the larger-scale trough. The glancing influence of this impulse coupled with a surface front may continue to support storms and the possibility for a strong to locally severe storm from northern IA into WI and the Upper Peninsula of MI for the next few hours. A cluster of strong to severe storms will likely continue moving southward across western KS through the mid-late evening. Steep lapse rates will potentially invigorate a few storms capable of isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginal hail. Less clear and more uncertain in terms of whether storms will initiate is over NE into western/central IA. The 00z Omaha raob showed minimal convective inhibition, so despite little in the way of forcing for ascent, a low possibility for a strong to severe storm remains for another few hours. ..Smith.. 09/03/2022
