SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Potential for locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail will be possible across the Northeast, and southwestward into the Southeast. Gusty winds and hail may also occur locally over parts of the central and southern Plains and Arklatex area. ...Parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, and into the Southeast... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across the central Appalachians vicinity at the start of the period, ahead of a weak cold front moving eastward across the mountains and southeastward across the Southeast. As the warm sector heats/destabilizes through the day, additional/isolated storm development is expected along the entire extent of this front, from the lower Great Lakes and New England, to the Gulf Coast. At this time, somewhat more concentrated convective development is expected to evolve from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England, associated with a compact vort max progged to shift northeastward across this region during the afternoon and evening, in advance of the main short-wave trough to the west. Slightly stronger flow aloft and moderate instability may result in bands/clusters of storms capable of producing locally damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. Activity should peak in intensity through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing nocturnally. ...Parts of Oklahoma southeastward across the Arklatex... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may develop across parts of Oklahoma/East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, in the vicinity of a surface baroclinic zone expected to lie across the area. A deep mixed layer may support potential for locally strong wind gusts across the Oklahoma portion of the outlook, through early evening. During the evening, southwesterly low-level jet development may support some increase in convective development, possibly clustering into a loosely organized MCS over the Arkansas vicinity, that would then shift southward toward Louisiana, possibly accompanied by limited/local wind/hail near severe levels. ...Central and eastern Nebraska vicinity... Afternoon heating/destabilization across the central Plains vicinity should support isolated convective development, ahead of weak mid-level short-wave troughing forecast to crest the ridge and shift east-southeastward across the area during the afternoon and evening. With a belt of 40 kt west-northwesterly flow around the periphery of the ridge possibly contributing to evolution of a couple of stronger/organized storms, limited local risk for gusty winds and marginal hail remains evident during the late afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 09/06/2023
