SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening over parts of northern and western Mississippi into southeast Arkansas and northeast Louisiana, producing locally damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley... Scattered strong storms currently extend from southeast AR across northern MS and into northern AL, moving southeastward beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Heating during the day has resulted in a well-mixed boundary layer, and a pocket of moderate/strong instability with MLCAPE values averaging 2000-3000 J/kg where dewpoints are highest. The 00Z KJAN soundings shows a bit of midlevel subsidence, but this has been counteracted by the favorable time of day and uncapped parcels. A threat of locally damaging gusts is expected to persist for a few more hours until the boundary layer cools sufficiently. The hail threat appears relatively low given the lack of shear, but the strongest cores could potentially yield small/marginal hail the next hour or two. See mesoscale discussion 2092 for more information. ...Lower MI into OH... A few storms persist this evening in association with a weak upper wave and a surface trough. The 00Z DTX sounding shows MLCAPE around 1200 J/kg along with 20-30 kt midlevel westerlies. While a few stronger storms persist currently, the overall threat is expected to diminish shortly as the air mass cools and drying occurs from the west. ..Jewell.. 09/07/2023
