Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 103

   Mesoscale Discussion 0103
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 PM CST Tue Feb 01 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas into southwestern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 020421Z - 020815Z

   SUMMARY...Increasing precipitation rates appear probable through
   midnight-3 AM CST, enhanced by the development of convection
   accompanied by bursts of heavy sleet and/or snow, with snow rates at
   least briefly around 1-2+ inches per hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...The sharp surface frontal zone continues to slowly
   advance southward through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent
   central Great Plains.  The deepening leading edge of the
   sub-freezing surface-based air (through around 850 mb) is forecast
   to continue south of the Sedalia MO and Emporia KS vicinities,
   toward the Interstate 44 corridor of southwestern Missouri and
   northeastern Oklahoma through 06-09Z.  As this occurs, low-level
   Gulf moisture return above the front, coupled with lift supported by
   low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing will contribute
   to increasing precipitation rates.

   Based on Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the low-level moisture
   return is surmounted by initially dry air in the 700-500 mb layer,
   contributing to thermodynamic profiles with potential convective
   instability.  As a low-amplitude amplitude mid-level short wave
   trough emerges from larger-scale upstream troughing, centered over
   the Southwest, and approaches the region during the next few hours,
   forcing for ascent may contribute to steepening mid-level lapse
   rates and destabilization supportive of increasing weak convective
   development.  While some lightning might not be out of the question,
   probabilities for this still appear relatively low.  However, at
   least localized enhancement of precipitation rates is still
   probable, with lift also becoming maximized in the dendritic growth
   zone.

   This could include bursts of heavier sleet, at least initially,
   perhaps in excess of .5 inches per hour.  As the front progresses
   southward, and low levels continue to cool, snow may become the more
   prominent precipitation type with the convection, possibly including
   a period with rates on the order of 1-2+ inches per hour.

   ..Kerr.. 02/02/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37839608 38399442 38509307 37879336 37079580 37229618
               37839608