Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1683

   Mesoscale Discussion 1683
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

   Areas affected...northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021911Z - 022115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms in the Salina Kansas area may
   persist for a few hours into northeast Kansas. Wind, hail, and
   perhaps a tornado threat are all possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms on the southern fringe of a larger-scale
   precipitation shield from NE into northern KS have increased in
   intensity as a hotter air mass develops to the south. Surface
   analysis shows temperatures into the 90s F across south-central KS,
   which has eroded capping. Downstream of these cells, temperatures
   are quite a bit cooler, only in the lower 80s around Topeka,
   although a warming trend is expected. Cirrus is currently hampering
   heating across northeast KS as well.

   Given the robustness of the current cell, a severe hail or wind
   threat may persist in a narrow zone across several counties over the
   next few hours. In addition, shear profiles are favorable for
   supercells, and 0-1 SRH will remain over 100 m2/s2 which could also
   favor a tornado risk assuming cells remain discrete.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 09/02/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39069798 39539626 39449589 39169571 38949577 38839609
               38799716 38739789 38809799 38919802 39069798