Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 177

   Mesoscale Discussion 0177
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado into the
   northwestern Kansas and adjacent southwestern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141842Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may continue to develop and intensify
   through late afternoon.  Peak intensities are expected to remain
   generally weak, but the more vigorous activity may pose a risk for
   mainly small hail and gusty winds.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is underway along the
   occluded surface frontal zone, northeast of the surface cyclone
   center, across northeastern Colorado into areas near or just south
   of the western Kansas/Nebraska border area.  This is being aided by
   steepening lapse rates with insolation, beneath the mid-level cold
   core (including 500 mb temps aob -25C).  Further intensification
   into low-topped thunderstorms appears possible through 21-22Z,
   although this will be inhibited, at least to a degree, by relatively
   dry lower/mid tropospheric air.  

   Mixed-layer CAPE may remain on the order of a couple hundred J/kg or
   so, and lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields along the front are in
   the process of weakening.  As a result, any sustained thunderstorm
   activity seems likely to remain weak.  However, given the steepening
   low-level lapse rates rates with continuing insolation, and the
   generally cold thermodynamic profiles, small hail may be possible
   along with some gusty winds.

   It might not be out the question that ambient vertical vorticity
   along the boundary, coupled with low-level upward vertical motion
   beneath the stronger updrafts, could become supportive of a
   "landspout" type tornado.  However, it appears that any such
   activity should be fairly isolated, brief and very weak.

   ..Kerr.. 03/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39700290 40020204 40100124 40070067 39759978 39549984
               39710084 39770131 39400240 39700290