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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1887

   Mesoscale Discussion 1887
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Missouri and adjacent
   portions of northeastern Kansas and west central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530...

   Valid 240713Z - 240915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears likely in a
   corridor across north central Missouri, to the north of Interstate
   70, through 4-6 AM CDT.  Some of this activity may pose a risk for
   severe hail, which may continue beyond the watch expiration. 
   However, this threat may remain marginal enough that a new severe
   weather watch may not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The primary initial convective development has been
   focused along the warm frontal zone near the 850 mb level, beneath
   the cooler mid-level temperatures.  To the south of this band,
   potential instability is larger, but inhibition associated with
   warmer mid-level temperatures has tended to suppress thunderstorm
   development.  However, latest model output continues to indicate
   that there will be increasing lift along this corridor through
   09-11Z, which seems likely to support increasing new thunderstorm
   development.  As this occurs, the environment will probably be
   conducive to a few supercell structures posing at least a marginal
   severe hail risk, before activity becomes more widespread.

   ..Kerr.. 10/24/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40239522 40199266 39349033 38849074 38839255 38949395
               39229485 40239522