Mesoscale Discussion 1938 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and far southwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546... Valid 102329Z - 110130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546 continues. SUMMARY...A limited severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546, with damaging gusts the primary threat, though some small hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...An analysis of the latest METAR observations depict a surface low, located roughly along the northeast KS/southeast NE border, which continues to progress northeastward along with a trailing surface cold front across eastern KS. A marginally buoyant airmass is gradually advecting northward across central into northern MO, characterized by a surface airmass of near 70 F temperatures/upper 50s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 23Z mesoanalysis). Latest KEAX radar data shows modest upscale growth of convection across eastern KS, which is progressing eastward towards the marginally buoyant airmass of 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear is present across central into northern MO, the approaching convection is not overly robust, and buoyancy is expected to remain mediocre through the evening. Predominantly linear modes of convection suggest that a couple of strong to damaging wind gusts and bouts of small hail remain possible this evening. An additional WW issuance is not expected into northern or western MO, though a local WW extension may be done. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 11/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38249643 39279590 39639539 39849495 40189432 40489369 40629328 40489304 39699342 39169361 38739377 38539391 38259426 38079540 38249643
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1938
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