SPC MD 418

MD 0418 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 0418 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Areas affected...Parts of north central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220015Z - 220145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity capable of producing small hail and
a few strong wind gusts may persist, and possibly increase some, for
a period this evening.  However, overall, the threat still appears
marginal enough that a severe weather watch will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing small, but sustained cluster of thunderstorms
has accelerated some while advancing east-northeastward during the
past couple of hours, from near 20 to around 30 kt.  Activity has
been mostly post-cold frontal, aided by mid-level cooling and
sufficient boundary layer moisture to contribute to CAPE locally up
to around 1000-1500 J/kg.  Deep layer wind fields and shear are
mostly modest to weak, but initially steep lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates have been sufficient to support mainly small hail and a
few strong wind gusts.  

It remains unclear how much longer this activity will maintain
strength as it spreads near/to the south and east of Hill City.  It
seems possible that it may weaken as the cold front overtakes the
dryline and supports the initiation of new thunderstorm activity
downstream, around the Hays, Russell, Smith Center and Beloit
vicinities.  It is possible that shear associated with strengthening
southerly 850 mb flow across this region could aid organization of
consolidating new development.  But any associated severe wind
threat probably will be limited by the onset of boundary layer
cooling, which likely will result in an increasingly marginal
thermodynamic environment for vigorous convection.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39949884 40019749 39509668 38279797 38069948 38480001
            39429953 39949884 

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SPC MD 379

MD 0379 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76… FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0379 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

Valid 180252Z - 180415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
continues.

SUMMARY...The large hail and damaging wind threat continues across
severe thunderstorm watch 76. The area with the greatest threat for
damaging winds will be in northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.
Local watch extensions or a downstream watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue across two areas within severe
thunderstorm watch 76. The storms along the stationary front
continue to be primarily hail producers while the line of storms
along I-35 in Oklahoma have formed into a bowing segment with
primarily a damaging wind threat. Expect the primary threat to be
the bowing line of storms. Recently the Blackwell, OK mesonet site
reported a wind gust of 62 mph. As this line continues to mature,
expect wind speeds to continue to increase with the possibility for
some winds in excess of 70 mph. Expect this line of storms to
maintain severe intensity into far eastern Oklahoma and southeastern
Kansas, but there is considerable uncertainty whether the line will
be severe when it moves into a less unstable environment in
Missouri. Therefore, trends will need to continue to be monitored
for a downstream watch.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36949777 37329729 38019612 38519533 38179419 36979404
            36629451 35809589 35289703 35219777 35239828 36319774
            36949777 

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SPC MD 376

MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76… FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS…AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0376 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and far
western MIssouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

Valid 180049Z - 180215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
continues.

SUMMARY...Continued upscale growth of ongoing convection will lead
to additional severe weather into the overnight hours. The best
chance for damaging winds will be along the Kansas/Oklahoma border.

DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has now grown into a convective
complex in northwestern Oklahoma extending into south central
Kansas. The Oklahoma mesonet shows evidence of a developing cold
pool with upper 50 temperatures across much of northwest Oklahoma.
This cold pool is expected to surge eastward through the evening and
will likely produce a bowing area of damaging winds somewhere along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. The higher wind damage threat is
expected to start to organize somewhere near Ponca City and extend
east northeastward along and just south of the location of the
front.

Outside of this area, convection along the front in east central
Kansas and convection extending southward from the expected bowing
segment will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds
through the evening and into the early overnight. Storms are
expected to stay mostly north of I-40 in Oklahoma, but additional
storm development on the southern edge of this line could
necessitate the addition of a watch for a few more counties south of
severe thunderstorm watch 76.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37459865 36379899 35479907 35929691 36699495 37299446
            38169431 38589425 38859477 37459865 

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SPC MD 374

MD 0374 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76… FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0374 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

Valid 172308Z - 180045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
continues.

SUMMARY...Widespread storm development is expected through 01Z. The
initial threat will be large hail with a quick transition to
damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...23Z visible satellite imagery and composite radar
imagery suggest the storm initiation is likely along the entire
stationary front within the next 1 to 2 hours. Given MLCAPE around
2500 J/kg and effective shear around 45 to 40 knots per RAP
mesoanalysis, initial storm mode is expected to be supercellular. In
addition, very steep mid-level lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km
will support a threat for very large hail initially. These storms
are expected to grow upscale rather quickly which will likely end
the very large hail threat. As this upscale growth continues and a
cold pool becomes better established, damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary threat later this evening and into the
overnight hours.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37029913 37649815 38759541 38689485 37879475 37179485
            36389566 35809771 35609847 35679903 36239951 37029913 

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SPC MD 370

MD 0370 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 0370 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 172211Z - 172345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have started to form along the cold front in
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. These storms may be capable
of large hail. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed shortly.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection and diabatic heating has
destabilized the area ahead of the cold front over the past few
hours. This has led to sufficient buoyancy for storm development
along the cold front in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
Additionally a storm has developed in east central Kansas in the
eastern portion of severe thunderstorm watch 76. Most convective
allowing guidance suggests the primary area of strong storm
development will be associated with additional development along the
boundary where this initial storm has developed. Steep mid-level
lapse rates (8.0 to 8.5 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis) and effective
shear around 40 to 45 knots per TWX VWP will support a threat for
large hail from these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch will be
needed shortly.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39559619 40069557 40479472 40549429 40569330 40399208
            38829264 38509326 38089414 38739521 38989563 39279611
            39559619 

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SPC MD 366

MD 0366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS…SOUTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0366 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...South-central Kansas...Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 171942Z - 172215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Agitated cumulus has begun to develop along a
quasi-stationary boundary draped across south-central Kansas. With
continued surface heating and mid-level ascent approaching, storm
development is expected in the next 2-3 hours. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with this activity,
with a transition to a primary wind threat as storms grow upscale. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely in the next 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Near and south of a quasi-stationary boundary from
south-central Kansas into northeastern Kansas, temperatures have
warmed into the upper-70s with dewpoints in the upper-50s to low
60s. Some mid-level clouds associated with a lead shortwave impulse
have slowed boundary layer destabilization somewhat. However, as
temperatures continue to warm and the main ascent from the mid-level
trough continues to overspread the southern/central Plains, storms
are expected to develop from southwest to northeast along the
boundary. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective deep-layer
shear of 35-45 kts will support organized convection. Steep
mid-level lapse rates of around 8 C/km will support a threat for
large hail with initial thunderstorm activity. Storms are expected
to grow upscale rather quickly given the boundary-parallel shear
vectors. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly with any
bowing segments that may develop.

..Wendt/Grams.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37389917 38099758 38629588 38409540 37759561 37239656
            37209715 37109819 37079909 37149929 37389917 

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SPC MD 338

MD 0338 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS

MD 0338 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Western/Central Illinois

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 141327Z - 141630Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of heavy snow are possible along with
potential for thundersnow. Heaviest snow rates will be around 1
inch/hour and last until 10-11 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave, visible on moisture channel
imagery, is now lifting through Missouri into the Upper Midwest. A
band of heavier snow associated with 850-700 mb frontogenesis is now
occurring from near Quincy, IL to northeast of Peoria, IL. As
mid-level ascent continues to move into the region and 850/700 mb
cold air advection increases, profiles should become more conducive
to heavier snowfall rates, perhaps approaching 1 inch/hour in some
places. Furthermore, weak instability at cloud top -- no more than
100-200 J/kg -- noted on the 12Z ILX sounding will support
convective elements with a few instances of thundersnow. Per NLDN
data, this has already occurred in the vicinity of Peoria over the
last hour or two with the ASOS also reporting heavy snow. The band
will continue to lift to the northeast through the day and the
heaviest snow should end by 10-11 AM CDT.

..Wendt.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40439112 41009034 41468962 41798894 41728849 41148853
            40528962 40148999 39829102 39969139 40229140 40439112 

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SPC MD 300

MD 0300 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA

MD 0300 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Areas affected...north-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 47...

Valid 110308Z - 110515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 47
continues.

SUMMARY...A hail threat will likely persist through the evening from
northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale lift persists across the region
with a deep low moving into northeast KS. While boundary layer
moisture has been marginal for severe weather, the presence of steep
lapse rates and favorable lift has led to scattered severe storms
producing hail up to Golf-Ball size. Extremely strong shear profiles
exist across the warm sector and north of the stationary/warm front,
but much of this SRH has been rendered in-effective.

Continued warm advection around the cyclone will support elevated
hail through the evening. The prospect for surface based storms
appears low at this time.

..Jewell.. 04/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39449663 38919743 38849788 38979856 39139917 39399963
            39859984 40319970 40779935 41469846 41749771 41759658
            41539539 40999487 40509487 40139496 39759527 39649578
            39449663 

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SPC MD 299

MD 0299 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

MD 0299 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Areas affected...North-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 102249Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of mainly damaging hail may
develop after 00Z.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across central KS,
and will track northeastward into southeast NE this evening. The
synoptic setup overall is quite favorable for severe storms with
steep lapse rates aloft, strong wind profiles, and lift. However,
moisture is a major concern. GPS PW sensors indicate values
approaching 0.60" near Wichita, but a band of relatively greater PW
does exist near the stationary/developing warm front from near
Kansas City into southeast NE.

Recent visible imagery and radar shows skeletal convection forming
near Russell KS as of 23Z, ahead of the low. The zone from here
northeastward appears to have the greatest chance of severe storms
capable of large hail. Supercells are possible, either elevated, or,
surface based right along the front, with an enhanced risk of
damaging hail. While low-level moisture is a concern, a conditional
tornado risk still exists given favorable storm mode, steep lapse
rates, lift along the boundary, and increasing low-level SRH.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39549925 40579892 41179839 41459749 41549664 41429611
            41179581 40779564 40369561 40119570 39989596 39889631
            39789661 39589706 39269752 38859810 38749852 38799876
            39079914 39549925 

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SPC MD 273

MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS

MD 0273 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...far south-central Nebraska into north-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070643Z - 070745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible the
next 1-2 hours as storms track southeast from south-central Nebraska
into north-central KS.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose a
marginally severe hail threat the next 1-2 hours as they track
southeast from far south-central NE into north-central KS. These
storms were occurring in an area of weak forcing associated with the
northern stream shortwave trough moving across the central Plains
and in the vicinity of a surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates
around 7-8 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs and weak elevated instability
will continue to support some stronger updrafts over the next couple
of hours. As the storms track further southeast, they may encounter
some subsidence on the back side of a MCV currently over far
southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA. The impact of this
subsidence is evident in surface dewpoints falling into the mid 40s
across central KS the last couple of hours. Given the localized
nature of the threat, and that storms are expected to weaken in the
next couple of hours, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40429894 40309844 39959763 39549742 39249742 39099766
            39139833 39419882 39759907 40179923 40429894 

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