Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT MON APR 01 2013 VALID 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...FLORIDA INTO FAR SRN GA- D4 INTO D5... MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES EITHER THUR NIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE AREA AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A SEVERE THREAT LATE THUR NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER...SUGGESTING THE MAIN THREAT EARLY FRIDAY. IN EITHER CASE...MOISTENING WILL BE UNDERWAY ON THUR...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LAND. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR MAY BE ALONG THE W COAST AS MATURE STORMS MOVE OFF THE WATER. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD OCCUR GIVEN VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR AND MAY LIMIT TORNADO THREAT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AND WILL MAXIMIZE ECHO TOPS AND WATER LOADING...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS...EITHER DUE TO OUTFLOW OR AUGMENTED BY MESOCYCLONES. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS - D8... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AFTER ABOUT D7 WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DRYLINE SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM KS INTO OK AND TX. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS NRN OK BY 00Z ON THE 9TH.
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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