SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL ENSURE SFC RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE TUESDAY. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST/ROCKIES ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY DIABATIC HEATING ALONG DEMARCATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER NWRN TX. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX AROUND ABI. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S AND THIS SHOULD BE BREACHED BY 22Z. AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS NEAR THE DRYLINE HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE EVENING HOURS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INDUCED AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MID 60S AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN KS. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ATOP COOLER/STABLE AIR MASS OVER WRN OK DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NNEWD INTO KS. HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH ELEVATED ACTIVITY BUT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED WITH ANY SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS OVER NWRN TX. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION AND FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE 10 PERCENT SIG HAIL...THOUGH VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED AND STRONGLY SHEARED STORM. ..MID MS/OH VALLEY... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE NRN GULF STATES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST NORTH OF A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO SRN MO. EPISODIC BOUTS OF CONVECTION FROM MO INTO THE OH VALLEY MAY BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT RATHER DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. DIABATIC HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION MODULATED BY A VEERED LLJ COULD PROVE SOMEWHAT INSIGHTFUL WHERE CONVECTION MAY CONCENTRATE BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD FEED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS...OVERALL INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEAR TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 04/15/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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