SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT MON APR 22 2013 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...AN ELONGATED UPR TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN MB TO WA/ORE WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS/NRN PLNS TODAY...AND REACH A CNTRL RCKYS/UPR MS VLY AXIS BY 12Z TUE. AT LWR LVLS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE S ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLNS...WHILE PROGRESSING MORE SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS AND LWR MO VLYS. ...KS/OK/NE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT... LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THAT SFC DEWPOINTS COULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 50S F ACROSS WRN/NRN OK AND FAR SRN KS BY THIS EVE. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND COOL MID-LVL TEMPS...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD LATE DAY TSTMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES S INTO REGION. WIND PROFILES LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD YIELD SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND DESPITE RATHER MODEST MOISTURE /PW APPROACHING 1 INCH/ AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL ESE-MOVING MCS TNGT GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/VEERING OF LLJ...AND CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM NWRN OK INTO W CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTN. SUBSTANTIAL EML CAP AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LARGELY PROHIBIT SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FEATURE. NEVERTHELESS...A LOW PROBABILISTIC/CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A SVR STORM OR TWO GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE PRESENT FOR DEVELOPMENT THERE. ...SRN TWO-THIRDS OF FL THIS AFTN... WEAK SW-NE FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED OVER CNTRL FL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SURGE OF LOW-LVL NELY FLOW TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE SLOWLY EVOLVES OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. WHILE THIS WILL TEND TO USHER IN SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LVL AIR...WITH AFTN HEATING CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA LIKELY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH WEAK LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PROMOTING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SCTD-NUMEROUS DIURNAL TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS. ..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 04/22/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
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