SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT MON APR 29 2013 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA... ...IA... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER IA THIS EVENING. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF INITIATION OVER SOUTHWEST IA AROUND DUSK...WITH STORMS BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...KS/MO/NEB... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS EVENING. FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE STORMS FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE MO RIVER THIS EVENING. ALSO... SEVERAL MODELS APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM OVER-FORECASTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MO. IT IS BELIEVED THAT THOSE VALUES ARE 5-10 DEGREES TOO WARM. THE LESSENED MOISTURE COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE CAP STRENGTH...RAISE LCL HEIGHTS...AND DECREASE INITIATION POTENTIAL. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CNK. IN THE EVENT THAT STORMS CAN FORM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN. ...DEEP SOUTH TX... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR DRT WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION AROUND PEAK HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...FL... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/GARNER.. 04/29/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
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