SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ALOFT MAY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT MOST PROBABLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN NEB/PORTIONS OF KS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN NM/FAR NORTHWEST TX. THE COLLOCATION OF LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AS MUCH AS 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE APPEARING POSSIBLE. VEERING LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/SPATIAL PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY AT DAY 3 PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME...BUT ONE IS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE /IF NOT PROBABLE/ IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COINCIDE WITH A SLOW-MOVING/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS FRONT MAY ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 08/13/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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