SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2013 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST INTO THURSDAY...GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE...IT APPEARS THAT AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ALOFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS...AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEB AND THE WESTERN HALF OF KS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN NM/FAR NORTHWEST TX AND NORTHWEST OK. WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...THE COLLOCATION OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AS MUCH AS 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE BY PEAK HEATING. VEERING LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT /30-40 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PENDING SUBSEQUENT DETAILS/GUIDANCE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND/OR A SIG HAIL DELINEATION MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... AHEAD OF A LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER TOUGH...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COINCIDE WITH A SLOW-MOVING/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS FRONT MAY ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...IF NEAR-COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT /AND AN ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS/ OCCURS ESPECIALLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z NAM...THEN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES COULD MATERIALIZE NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF FL PANHANDLE INTO AL/GA. ..GUYER.. 08/14/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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