SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF ERN CO AND WRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A MOIST AIR MASS TO THE S AND HIGH PRESSURE N. A POCKET OF SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. ELY SURFACE WINDS N OF A SRN PLAINS SFC LOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE INTO CO...WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. ...MUCH OF ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR SERN WY AND NERN NM... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING ACROSS KS AND ERN CO. BY MID AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD ERUPT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THE CELLS COULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN MCS AS THEY PROPAGATE EWD INTO WRN KS DURING THE EVENING. ...CNTRL AND ERN KS... WHILE CAPPING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD OUT OF CO...SUPPORTED BY A SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY. THIS COULD EASILY SUPPORT AN MCS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS AND SOME HAIL OVERNIGHT MAINLY INTO CNTRL KS. ...CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS BACKED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE INTO MT AND WY. 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY W OF THE WY/SD/NEB BORDER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CAPPING TO THE E. ...NERN NC...ERN VA...DELMARVA...NJ... A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR S OF THE FRONT INTO VA. WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 08/02/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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