SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A PLUME OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH AGAIN SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL LATE IN THE DAY FROM SERN MT INTO KS. ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL OR ERN KS EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING EWD INTO MO. DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THIS SYSTEM IS...THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT ONGOING. LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH HEATING...A NARROW PLUME OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. AIDED BY ELY UPSLOPE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ARE LIKELY. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND WITH CAPPING FARTHER E INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE THREAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY NARROW AND LIMITED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 08/02/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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