SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT SAT AUG 25 2012 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PART OF DELMARVA INTO SRN DE... CORRECTED CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC AND SLIGHT RISK HEADLINE ...SERN KS THROUGH OK TO PARTS OF NW TX... TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE CLOSED LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS HAS LOST SOME OF ITS DEFINITION...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REACH NERN KS/NWRN MO BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ATTENDANT SSWWD-EXTENDING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS...CENTRAL OK AND NW TX OVERNIGHT. THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ FROM NW TX THROUGH CENTRAL OK TO ERN KS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEST CENTRAL-NW TX THROUGH MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL OK...ERN KS TO SRN IA. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS THIS EVENING FROM SERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL OK TO NW TX...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE PERIPHERY REGIONS OF ONGOING TSTMS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY LATE EVENING. THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY FROM NW TX...ERN TX PANHANDLE...THROUGH WRN AND NRN OK TO FAR SERN KS FOR MAINLY THE EARLY-MID EVENING TIME PERIOD. ...DELMARVA TO SRN DE... THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT YET THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE OVERALL THREAT HAVING SHIFTED NWD FROM DELMARVA TO SRN DE. ...S FL... REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ON THE MOVEMENT OF TS ISAAC. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM REACHING THE WATERS N OF THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST BY 12Z SUN...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE NWRN-NRN PERIPHERY SUGGESTS ANY OUTER BANDS REACHING THE KEYS AND THE MAINLAND PART OF S FL COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT PRIOR TO 12Z. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..PETERS.. 08/26/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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