SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN REGION. ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS REGIME INCLUDING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SWRN CANADA THAT WILL CREST UPPER RIDGE AND REACH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY THEN NWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAKER PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO OK. A N-S BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH NEB/KS AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. ...MID MS VALLEY REGION... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER A PORTION OF THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AUGMENT ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE E-W FRONT. RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE SERN U.S. BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL RESIDE ON ERN FRINGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE ONGOING STORMS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH IA AND MO WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW REGIME. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. ...NERN STATES... MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A GRADUAL MOISTENING SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE CAP WEAKENS. MODEST FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ...ERN KS INTO ERN OK... IT STILL APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A RELATIVELY HOT/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PROMOTED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT AND AN EVOLVING NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS KS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS DO OCCUR. ..DIAL.. 08/07/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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