SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...NM...CO...AZ...UT...SERN NV...S-CNTRL WY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX WILL ENTER THE
GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING A BROAD INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND A SUBSEQUENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER E...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE ADDITIONAL IMPULSES TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING E OF THE GREAT PLAINS. HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST E OF THE LOWER GREAT PLAINS.

...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...NM...CO...AZ...UT...SERN
NV...S-CNTRL WY...
SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. DEEP DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT
CRITICALLY STRONG SWLY SFC WINDS. LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR/AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS AND ACROSS S-CNTRL WY...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS COULD
APPROACH 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE /INCLUDING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY...AS A LEE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND A
DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO WRN KS. FORECAST MODELS ARE EXHIBITING
DIFFERENCES IN DRYLINE POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
RELATED TO THE TIMING OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE...INTRODUCING SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE ERN EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS WRN KS.

MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AND HOT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL YIELD RH
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. DRY TO VERY DRY FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE THE RISK FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES.

...SRN AZ...SWRN NM...
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS SRN AZ
AND SWRN NM...AS THIS AREA IS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND
LOCATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
COULD APPROACH 20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALONG WITH
HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html