SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...NRN
AZ...UT...WRN CO...SRN WY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AHEAD OF A LARGE
CYCLONE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHTENING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND FAVOR
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SWLY WIND FIELDS. MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE IN S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM KS SWD INTO TX.

...SERN CA...SRN/CNTRL/ERN NV...NRN AZ...UT...WRN CO...SRN WY...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR RH RECOVERY IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CRITICAL RISK AREA...WITH MANY SURFACE OBSERVING SITES SHOWING
VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. FURTHER DRYING...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING YIELDS TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FROM 20-30
MPH FROM ERN NV NEWD INTO SRN WY. THESE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...ERN AZ...WRN/NRN NM...SRN CO...
PW VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED FROM ERN AZ
INTO MUCH OF NM AS A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
YIELD MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AND FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS...THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.

...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...S-SWLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM SWRN/CNTRL KS S-SWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. NAM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 20S...WHILE GFS IS
MORE HUMID. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
DURING THE D1 UPDATE.

..GARNER.. 06/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html