SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013

VALID 131700Z - 141200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN NM...FAR SERN CO...

...E-CNTRL/NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...FAR WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CORRIDOR OF LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NM AND FAR SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
TEENS AS A LEE SFC TROUGH SHARPENS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER AND INTO
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
THIS AREA TO A CRITICAL RISK AREA.

SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL RISK AREA...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NERN
NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...THE FAR WRN OK AND NWRN TX
PANHANDLES...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL
LIKELY. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
MARGINAL ACROSS THESE AREAS /AOB 20 MPH/.

...SRN NV...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S F WILL YIELD RH VALUES
APPROACHING 10 PERCENT. MARGINALLY STRONG SWLY WINDS...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH...WILL BECOME COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN GREAT
BASIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...NRN AZ...SRN UT...NERN NM...
DEEP-LAYER WLYS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. STRONG SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SRN
UT/NRN AZ INTO NERN NM...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH. THE TWO FACTORS PRECLUDING A CRITICAL
RISK UPGRADE ARE /1/ FORECAST MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST
AREAS...AND /2/ MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS ACCORDING TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

..ROGERS.. 04/13/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0223 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A LEE TROUGH SHARPENING
SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...E-CNTRL/NERN NM...SERN CO...
SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER E-CNTRL/NERN NM AND SERN CO AS A LEE TROUGH SHARPENS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS /FURTHER ENHANCED BY
DOWNSLOPE DRYING/ AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL AID IN MIN RH
VALUES FROM 10-15 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...SRN NV...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL SSWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING 20 MPH. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS WILL SUPPORT THE OCCURRENCE
OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...NRN AZ...
SUSTAINED WSWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NRN AZ TODAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL LOCALLY SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS. HOWEVER...DESPITE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...FUEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES VEGETATION IS TOO MOIST TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA ATTM.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html